Can’t get all the experts together?

فهرست عناوین اصلی در این پاورپوینت

فهرست عناوین اصلی در این پاورپوینت

● Science and subjectivity
● Outline
● Elicitation
● My talk will be about
● Subjective
● Elicitation protocols
● Outline and key features of SHELF
● Timescale flowchart
● Workshop flowchart
● The SHELF1 form
● The SHELF2 form
● Scientific
● The evidence dossier
● Importance of the dossier
● Probabilistic judgements
● Example – how many Muslims?
● Anchoring can have a big effect
● Sequence of judgements
● Behavioural aggregation
● RIO
● Not mathematical aggregation
● Templates
● The facilitator
● Practical
● It’s not practical!
● Can’t get all the experts together?
● Too many quantities?
● Imprecise probabilities?
● Tossing coins and drawing pins
● Complete description of uncertainty
● If I have previously seen 3 tosses
● Is this “uncertainty about uncertainty”?
● But elicitation is not an exact science!
● So we need to do some sensitivity analysis
● How much imprecision?

نوع زبان: انگلیسی حجم: 2.32 مگا بایت
نوع فایل: اسلاید پاورپوینت تعداد اسلایدها: 41 صفحه
سطح مطلب: نامشخص پسوند فایل: pptx
گروه موضوعی: زمان استخراج مطلب: 2019/06/15 08:55:19

لینک دانلود رایگان لینک دانلود کمکی

اسلایدهای پاورپوینت مرتبط در پایین صفحه

عبارات مهم استفاده شده در این مطلب

عبارات مهم استفاده شده در این مطلب

expert, elicitation, judgement, ۱۳, ., evidence, ۱۹, symposium, liverpool, february, make, subjective,

توجه: این مطلب در تاریخ 2019/06/15 08:55:19 به صورت خودکار از فضای وب آشکار توسط موتور جستجوی پاورپوینت جمع آوری شده است و در صورت اعلام عدم رضایت تهیه کننده ی آن، طبق قوانین سایت از روی وب گاه حذف خواهد شد. این مطلب از وب سایت زیر استخراج شده است و مسئولیت انتشار آن با منبع اصلی است.

https://riskinstitute.uk/events/expertelicitation/Presentations/anthonyohagan.pptx

در صورتی که محتوای فایل ارائه شده با عنوان مطلب سازگار نبود یا مطلب مذکور خلاف قوانین کشور بود لطفا در بخش دیدگاه (در پایین صفحه) به ما اطلاع دهید تا بعد از بررسی در کوتاه ترین زمان نسبت به حدف با اصلاح آن اقدام نماییم. جهت جستجوی پاورپوینت های بیشتر بر روی اینجا کلیک کنید.

عبارات پرتکرار و مهم در این اسلاید عبارتند از: expert, elicitation, judgement, ۱۳, ., evidence, ۱۹, symposium, liverpool, february, make, subjective,

مشاهده محتوای متنیِ این اسلاید ppt

مشاهده محتوای متنیِ این اسلاید ppt

elicitation subjective but scientific tony o’hagan ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱ science and subjectivity elicitation is necessarily subjective we ask experts for their personal judgements their knowledge and uncertainty will be expressed through probabilities and these are necessarily subjective probabilities surely this is totally unscientific a common reaction when experts are first introduced to subjective probability they often need education … ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۲ subjective talanx ۱ ۱۱ october ۲ ۱۸ expert elicitation ۳ you want to use subjective probability judgements isn’t that totally unscientific science is supposed to be objective. yes objectivity is the goal of science but scientists still have to make judgements. these judgements include theories insights interpretations of data. science progresses by other scientists debating and testing those judgements. making good judgements of this kind is what distinguishes a top scientist. talanx ۱ ۱۱ october ۲ ۱۸ expert elicitation ۴ but subjective judgements are open to bias prejudice sloppy thinking … subjective probabilities are judgements but they should be careful honest informed judgements. in science we must always be as objective as possible. probability judgements are like all the other judgements that a scientist necessarily makes and should be argued for in the same careful honest informed way. ۴ outline elicitation the type of elicitation i’ll be talking about subjective this is how i do elicitation scientific and this is why i do it that way practical but we need to be realistic ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۵ elicitation the type of elicitation i’ll be talking about ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۶ my talk will be about eliciting expert knowledge about a single uncertain quantity of interest qoi multivariate elicitation is another big topic and nobody knows what works and what doesn’t eliciting in a way that captures uncertainty about that quantity estimates alone are useless eliciting from multiple experts much of my talk will apply also for a single expert but multiple experts is the most important context eliciting on behalf of a client who knows much less than the experts ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۷ subjective this is how i do elicitation ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۸ elicitation protocols there are many pitfalls for the unwary well researched cognitive biases experts with vested interests personalities … but people with expertise in elicitation have developed several carefully designed protocols following one of these is part of being as scientific and objective as possible i use the shelf protocol developed by myself and jeremy oakley ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۹ outline and key features of shelf experts ۴ to ۸ come together in an elicitation workshop led by an experienced facilitator two rounds of judgement ۱. they make individual judgements without discussion carefully structured sequence of questions guided by research in psychology then discuss their differences ۲. they make consensus judgments behavioural aggregation maximising use of evidence the rational impartial observer rio shelf package templates for recording the elicitation guidance notes for the facilitator software for fitting distributions powerpoint slides to help experts make the required judgements ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱ oakley j. e. and o hagan a. ۲ ۱۶ . shelf the sheffield elicitation framework version ۳. university of sheffield uk. http tonyohagan.co.uk shelf timescale flowchart there is much to do before the elicitation workshop itself planning needs to start early because experts often have very full diaries ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool l۸ ۱۱ invite experts get their commitment and agree workshop dates identify experts allocate experts and parameters to workshops prepare evidence dossier brief experts get additional evidence update evidence dossier locate and prepare venues conduct workshops complete documentation pre elicitation appoint facilitator training experts take e learning workshop flowchart introductions training review evidence individual judgements discussion group judgements parameter ۱ parameter ۲ review evidence …….. roles review purpose of workshop etc. completion of shelf۱ form review principal ideas from online e learning course run a practice elicitation partly for the experts to practice the skills learnt online partly so that they see how the sheffield process works particularly group discussion consensus judgements e.g. plausible range median and tertiles privately without discussion individual judgements are revealed and discussed particularly high low wide or narrow distributions challenged and justified general discussion of reasons for individuals’ judgements group ‘consensus’ judgements are made the rational impartial observer a probability distribution is fitted feedback and opportunity to revisit judgements confirmation of final elicited distribution completion of shelf۲ form ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱۲ the shelf۱ form at the beginning of a workshop this form is completed it records basic information ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱۳ the shelf۲ form this form is completed for each elicited parameter it provides a record of the elicitation note the two judgement phases individual judgements group consensus judgements ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱۴ scientific and this is why i do it that way ۱۳ february ۲ ۱۹ expert elicitation symposium liverpool ۱۵ the evidence dossier a document summarising the evidence regarding each qoi to be elicited based on the researches of the project team possibly supplemented by additional evidence from experts for use by the experts when making judgements not too long otherwise it’s hard for experts to assimilate all the evidence when making their judgements point out weaknesses sample size sampling experimental technique different region species duration age etc. law of small numbers heuristic – experts rely too much on poor data when it’s all there is talanx ۱ ۱۱ october ۲ ۱۸ expert elicitation l۷ ۱۶ importance of the dossier elicited distributions should be evidence based as far as practicable experts’ judgements should differ only because of their expertise and interpretation of the evidence not from having different data aggregation is otherwise much less reliable effective the availability heuristic makes it important to review all the evidence together talanx ۱ ۱۱ october ۲ ۱۸ expert elicitation l۷ ۱۷ we need to assemble the evidence evidence should be shared it should be available to experts during elicitation probabilistic judgements we don’t ask just for vague things like an estimate or a likely range different people interpret such requests differently so we can’t compare the judgements of different experts and we don’t know what any expert’s judgements mean instead we ask for well defined and interpretable things like a median experts are given training in making these judgements it’s a probabilistic judgement but we’re not asking for a probability we don’t ask an expert for their probability that the qoi lies in some range because that would lead to anchoring bias ۱۳ …

کلمات کلیدی پرکاربرد در این اسلاید پاورپوینت: expert, elicitation, judgement, ۱۳, ., evidence, ۱۹, symposium, liverpool, february, make, subjective,

این فایل پاورپوینت شامل 41 اسلاید و به زبان انگلیسی و حجم آن 2.32 مگا بایت است. نوع قالب فایل pptx بوده که با این لینک قابل دانلود است. این مطلب برگرفته از سایت زیر است و مسئولیت انتشار آن با منبع اصلی می باشد که در تاریخ 2019/06/15 08:55:19 استخراج شده است.

https://riskinstitute.uk/events/expertelicitation/Presentations/anthonyohagan.pptx

  • جهت آموزش های پاورپوینت بر روی اینجا کلیک کنید.
  • جهت دانلود رایگان قالب های حرفه ای پاورپوینت بر روی اینجا کلیک کنید.

رفتن به مشاهده اسلاید در بالای صفحه


پاسخی بگذارید

نشانی ایمیل شما منتشر نخواهد شد. بخش‌های موردنیاز علامت‌گذاری شده‌اند *