Chapter 10: Project Risk Management

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● Chapter 10:
Project Risk Management
● The Importance of Project Risk Management
● Table 10-1. Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area
● What is Risk?
● Risk Utility
● Figure 10-1. Risk Utility Function and Risk Preference
● What is Project Risk Management?
● Risk Management Planning
● Table 10-2. Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan
● Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves
● Common Sources of Risk on Information Technology Projects
● Table 10-3. Information Technology Success Potential Scoring Sheet
● Table 10-4. McFarlan’s Risk Questionnaire
● Other Categories of Risk
● What Went Wrong?
● Risk Identification
● Table 10-5. Potential Risk Conditions Associated With Each Knowledge Area
● Quantitative Risk Analysis
● Table 10-6. Sample Probability/Impact Matrix for Qualitative Risk Assessment
● Figure 10-2. Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies
● Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
● Table 10-7. Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
● Expert Judgment
● Quantitative Risk Analysis
● Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
● Figure 10-3. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example
● Simulation
● What Went Right?
● Figure 10-4. Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
● Figure 10-5. Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results for Project Costs
● Risk Response Planning
● Table 10-8. General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks
● Risk Monitoring and Control
● Risk Response Control
● Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management
● Results of Good Project Risk Management

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risk, project, technology, ., management, copyright, course, point, potential, plan, low, high,

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chapter ۱ project risk management copyright course technology ۲ ۱ the importance of project risk management project risk management is the art and science of identifying assigning and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives risk management is often overlooked on projects but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects determining project scope and developing realistic estimates study by ibbs and kwak show how risk management is neglected especially on it projects kpmg study found that ۵۵ percent of runaway projects did no risk management at all copyright course technology ۲ ۱ table ۱ ۱. project management maturity by industry group and knowledge area copyright course technology ۲ ۱ what is risk a dictionary definition of risk is the possibility of loss or injury project risk involves understanding potential problems that might occur on the project and how they might impede project success risk management is like a form of insurance it is an investment copyright course technology ۲ ۱ risk utility risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who is risk averse those who are risk seeking have a higher tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake the risk neutral approach achieves a balance between risk and payoff copyright course technology ۲ ۱ figure ۱ ۱. risk utility function and risk preference copyright course technology ۲ ۱ what is project risk management the goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks while maximizing potential opportunities. major processes include risk management planning deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project risk identification determining which risks are likely to affect a project and documenting their characteristics qualitative risk analysis characterizing and analyzing risks and prioritizing their effects on project objectives quantitative risk analysis measuring the probability and consequences of risks risk response planning taking steps to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to meeting project objectives risk monitoring and control monitoring known risks identifying new risks reducing risks and evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction copyright course technology ۲ ۱ risk management planning the main output of risk management planning is a risk management plan the project team should review project documents and understand the organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to risk the level of detail will vary with the needs of the project copyright course technology ۲ ۱ table ۱ ۲. questions addressed in a risk management plan copyright course technology ۲ ۱ contingency and fallback plans contingency reserves contingency plans are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives contingency reserve or allowances are provisions held by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality occur copyright course technology ۲ ۱ common sources of risk on information technology projects several studies show that it projects share some common sources of risk the standish group developed an it success potential scoring sheet based on potential risks mcfarlan developed a risk questionnaire to help assess risk other broad categories of risk help identify potential risks copyright course technology ۲ ۱ table ۱ ۳. information technology success potential scoring sheet copyright course technology ۲ ۱ success criterion points user involvement ۱۹ executive management support ۱۶ clear statement of requirements ۱۵ proper planning ۱۱ realistic expectations ۱ smaller project milestones ۹ competent staff ۸ ownership ۶ clear visions and objectives ۳ hard working focused staff ۳ total ۱ table ۱ ۴. mcfarlan’s risk questionnaire copyright course technology ۲ ۱ ۱. what is the project estimate in calendar elapsed time ۱۲ months or less low ۱ point ۱۳ months to ۲۴ months medium ۲ points over ۲۴ months high ۳ points ۲. what is the estimated number of person days for the system ۱۲ to ۳۷۵ low ۱ point ۳۷۵ to ۱۸۷۵ medium ۲ points ۱۸۷۵ to ۳۷۵ medium ۳ points over ۳۷۵ high ۴ points ۳. number of departments involved excluding it one low ۱ point two medium ۲ points three or more high ۳ points ۴. is additional hardware required for the project none low points central processor type change low ۱ point peripheral storage device changes low ۱ terminals med ۲ change of platform for example high ۳ pcs replacing mainframes other categories of risk market risk will the new product be useful to the organization or marketable to others will users accept and use the product or service financial risk can the organization afford to undertake the project is this project the best way to use the company’s financial resources technology risk is the project technically feasible could the technology be obsolete before a useful product can be produced copyright course technology ۲ ۱ what went wrong several information technology projects fail because of technology risk. one project manager documented an important lesson he learned on a large it projectfocus on business needs first not technology. david anderson a project manager for kaman sciences corp. shared his lessons learned from a project failure in an article for cio enterprise magazine. after spending two years and several hundred thousand dollars on a project to provide new client server based financial and human resources information systems for their company anderson and his team finally admitted they had a failure on their hands. anderson admitted that he was too enamored by using cutting edge technology and took a high risk approach on the project. he ramrodded through what the project team was going to do and he admitted that he was wrong. the company finally decided to switch to a more stable technology to meet the business needs of the company. hildebrand carol. if at first you …

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